Posted by
beltway girl on Friday, July 18, 2008 1:36:39 AM
Forces set in motion by the Reagan Revolution are now in flux and set to converge in what is sure to be an historic election for the nation. The same states that have consistently gone blue over the past few decades will once again be blue now; the same can be said of the deep red states. But swing states abound across the map, and McCain and Obama probably will paint a new electoral landscape in this contest.
A writer today mused over the five states he feels will pick the president this time around. I believe he has targeted Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and Michigan. I would agree with this writer that there will be critical states in this election, but I feel they will be concentrated in a certain region, and that key and crucial region is the Midwest. Virginia and Nevada will probably go with McCain, and Colorado will go with Obama. But Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Indiana are all "swing states," and are all still in motion. Wisconsin leans strongly towards Obama, and Pennsylvania is decidedly leaning towards Obama. But they are not yet in his column, and this election is several months away. They are not locked in; and they will become the battlefield upon which the ideological war of this election is either won or lost.
Reagan had the good fortune of being the governor of California, and this delivered him this electorate rich jewel. But Obama will have that one in his crown this time around. And Michigan (17 EV), Wisconsin (10), Ohio (20), Indiana (11), and Pennsylvania (21) will loom gigantic as McCain struggles to make up for his California handicap.
He does not need all of them. He can write off Wisconsin, where the polls are leading decidedly and consistently towards Obama. But he absolutely must take two to three of the critical midwestern states. Right now, McCain should be targeting this region for barnstorming and blitz, downplaying his stand on trade and shouting his immediate fixes for the pain at the pump until his throat is hoarse.
Decades of political battling and bloodletting end in this election. Republicans have chosen a candidate with a fascinating story; but this candidate does not have the powerful oratorical skills to deliver the story. Nor does his centrist campaign have a focused and well-packaged message. The Republicans have tied one hand behind their backs when they needed to be Rocky Balboa.
The evangelicals, the tax-cutters, the pro-lifers, the Buckleyites, the blue-chip, country-club Republicans and the libertarians. The Operation Chaos crew. They will all follow to the watershed. The galvanized and energized African Americans, the feminists, the activists, the utopians, the anti-war doves. They, too, will follow.
They will come together this November at the watershed. And as our next president sets his hand down and swears to uphold the Constitution of the United States, he will hold in his hands the power to write some of America's most poignant and powerfully important chapters.
Regardless of who emerges as the victor, this will go down as one of the most fascinating and significant races ever held in American history.